[Waragainstsleep]

So the conviction has helped him raise funds though I suspect less funds than he is claiming.
He doesn't seem to be overly keen to spend it campaigning having spent several days playing golf instead.
I'm hearing a lot of folks saying he won't get a custodial sentence. Many seem to be two-tier skeptics who simply think no judge would dare lock up a former president, some compound this with him being a first time offender to make it more likely in their eyes.

On the other hand, the law does allow for jail time for these charges;
There are 34 of them;
Judge Merchan apparently has fairly consistent history of jailing people for this sort of thing (I haven't checked, I'm taking someone's word for it). Holding Trump in contempt, the constant violation of gag orders, the witness/jury intimidation tactics lifted from a Godfather movie, threatening Merchan's own daughter, the constant impugning of Merchan, the court, the jury, the DA, the state, the country and the justice system as a whole, the complete lack of contrition of responsibility will all lend themselves further towards a harsher custodial sentence (as they should with any judge). The fact that probation or fines will not act as any deterrent to Trump will also weigh here I feel. Merchan is quietly watching as Trump digs himself further into a hole with every lie he tell the media.
Someone else pointed out that Martha Stewart was a first time offender.
Incarceration while awaiting appeal would be the usual procedure as I understand it. Trump would clearly try to frame it as election interference but I'd enjoy hearing a spokesperson tell the press that Trump is asking for special treatment and as a convicted felon, does not deserve it.

I have also read this first conviction will factor into sentencing for his other trials. Are any three strikes rules in danger of coming into effect?
It seems like a matter of time before Smith can get Cannon recused. Her behaviour has been dreadful, though it seems he now has license to manipulate her because she knows how bad she looks and is tending to back down on her bad decisions if Smith simply resubmits his requests. A delaying tactic rather than leaving poor judgements on the record I suspect.

From what i gather the NY conviction is unlikely to be overturned before it gets to SCOTUS, as there is nothing whatsoever wrong with it.

His lawyers claims about not being allowed to call witnesses are utterly laughable. I'm surprised they aren't actionable by the bar association. Bringing the whole field into disrepute or something.

[reader50]

Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep 

Are any three strikes rules in danger of coming into effect?

Three Strikes is a multiplier used for violent crimes in some states. Used to insure violent criminals get mandatory jail time instead of probation. Seems to be getting repealed slowly - I don't read about 3-strikes very often any more.

In some states, the 3rd strike need not be violent. But the first couple still have to be. Trump's crimes did involve violence at the Capitol, though he didn't do it personally. You might claim a first strike out of that. But violence wasn't on the table in the Hush Money case. The Capitol Police case would be a better bet - except it's civil. No criminal charge will come from it. The DC election subversion and Georgia subversion cases are about fraud mainly.

[Waragainstsleep]

I'd heard of non-violent 3rd strikes, I didn't realise the first ones had to be violent.

[Waragainstsleep]

It hadn't occurred to me before but someone raised the prospect of a community service component to his punishment. I rather like the idea of him picking up trash on a highway.
I'd be very happy if he got two months in prison followed by probation and 300 hours of community service. As a minimum. And no stay pending appeals of course.

[reader50]

We'll find out in about a month. I hadn't even thought of the community service angle. That's typical for misdemeanors, no idea if it's common with felonies.

Uninvolved lawyers suggest the sentence will probably be stayed pending appeals. Because the charges are lowest-level felonies, and because it's a first conviction for Trump.

[OreoCookie]

This one is tricky: Preet Bahara argued that one argument in favor of jail time is the seriousness of the consequences, Trump's goal was to hide his sexual innuendos around the time the Hollywood recordings were released. So they were designed to change the outcome of an election.

On the other hand, I think Trump's problem will be compounding sentences. Giving him community service and a fine narrows his options for appeal. In my mind Trump will feel the effects when e. g. the documents case is decided. The facts seem clear and well-documented.

[andi*pandi]

the right is gleefully cheering Hunter Biden's 3 convicted counts of owning a gun for 11 days, which somehow could have a penalty of 25 years, but 34 counts of election fraud equals picking up litter? While the photo op would be great, that's a slap on the wrist.

[subego]

Phun phact: I have yet to buy legal pot because I want to make it more difficult to catch me when I perjure myself on that very same form.


Also, only a complete moron doesn’t cop a plea in this case.

[andi*pandi]

Did he make bad choices? sure. Is this also a legit witch hunt? Also sure.

It's super hilariousad that the right "don't take mah guns" rail against every permit and limitation on gun purchases ever, except this one. I mean, they've defended mass shooters who lied on the forms, or were never blocked from purchase because some states don't even HAVE those forms. Also case in point someone who had no business with a firearm, actually killed people, walking free: Kyle Rittenhouse.

Surely legal pot would not be the same as an evil drug addiction, no more than say, legal alcohol would be?

[subego]

The irony is getting busted for smoking crack isn’t that big a deal for someone in Hunter’s position. IIRC, that’s already happened, and nothing really came of it.

Perjury is a big deal. It’s always been a big deal. It’s rather astounding how many people trade crimes which are fairly meaningless for a perjury rap.



Edit: as I understand it, this is a federal form, and is required for every commercial gun purchase in the country, along with a background check. Neither are required for private sales.