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The Official MacNN COVID-19 Thread (Page 11)
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Originally Posted by subego
I outlined this before.
Yes, but you are just repeating yourself without addressing any of the points I or Glenn have made.
Originally Posted by subego
South Korea is geographically isolated, and …
See above. What matters is not geographic isolation, but movement of people.
Originally Posted by subego
… has decades of experience rallying themselves to meet a common threat.
What common threat?
If I remember my history lessons, South Korea was part of the Western alliance and has lived through the Cold War just like the US and Europe did. (While the Germanys, Austria* and the Koreas were at the dividing line of the Iron Curtain and where the land war would have started, by all expectations, this would have been a nuclear war. So the cost for the US would have been essentially the same as for Europe and Asia.)
Or are you referring to infectious diseases specifically? (If so, the US has dealt with the Ebola, SARS and MERS crises successfully — it never made it on its shores in large enough numbers.)
Originally Posted by subego
I’ll also add South Korea values conformity way more than the United States, or any European country for that matter.
Sure, although Japan has a very strong cultural emphasis on conformity and the Japanese government royally forked up their response to Covid-19. (Just to give you an idea how unfavorable Prime Minister Abe is seen, his response to Covid-19 gets a lower rating than Trump's in polls.) Again, it is so easy to pick out differences, but differences need not matter.
Look at what countries that have dealt with it well actually tend to have in common (South Korea, Germany, etc.):
- High trust in government.
- Organized response across all layers of society and government.
- Open communication to population.
- Quick response.
- Good health care system.
- Stricter adherence to social distancing measures.
And what (first-world) countries have in common that haven't dealt with it well (USA, Japan, UK):
- Low trust of the population in their government.
- Lack of openness.
- Cooperation between all layers of society and government, including scientists.
- Disorganized and confusing response.
- Low number of tests per capita.
- Large delay in enforcing social distancing measures.
There are countries like France, Italy, Spain and the like who started doing the right thing way too late. What certainly helps is how rich a country is — well, except for the US. The mortality rate in Germany is much lower than in its neighboring countries, no doubt due to the large number of ICU beds per capita. In Japan there is speculation that the low mortality rate is due to its experience dealing with cases of pneumonia amongst the elderly and the large number of CT scanners per capita (which are used in the diagnosis of pneumonia).
I don't see how geographic separation (as opposed to magnitude of movement of people) is a factor either of these groups share. Ditto for social conformity. I'm not saying these factors don't matter at all, I'm saying they are subordinate factors further down.
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I’ll reply more extensively, but two quick notes.
Originally Posted by OreoCookie
Yes, but you are just repeating yourself without addressing any of the points I or Glenn have made.
Oh... it wasn’t clear that’s what you were asking.
The common threat South Korea has had decades experience rallying themselves against is North Korea.
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Originally Posted by subego
The common threat South Korea has had decades experience rallying themselves against is North Korea.
… which was part of the Eastern bloc. In fact, a US-led war was the reason Korea was split in two in the first place, which is also why the US still has over 20,000 men and women stationed in South Korea. I fail to see how this is specific to Korea, and why the shared world-wide experience of the Cold War makes a difference here.
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Seeing as how Wisconsin has not pointed any missiles or artillery in my direction during my lifetime, I do not consider myself to have a shared experience with South Korea in this regard.
If I was South Korean, I’d imagine someone implying such a thing would tick me off.
Also note the Cold War has been over for 30 years. North Korea has continuously been a threat to South Korea that entire time.
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Wisconsin is teetering on the fence, so watch your back.
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Originally Posted by andi*pandi
Wisconsin is teetering on the fence, so watch your back.
I was going to say, my claim is not completely true. There was the Gorgonzola Offensive in 1974, but I was three, so too young to remember the smell of fondue in the morning.
I know it was considered a “police action”, but we all know the truth.
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Got my economic impact payment yesterday...in the form of a prepaid debit card like it’s some shitty rebate for buying spark plugs or something. I seriously almost threw it away, everything about the envelope and (lack of) accompanying info makes it look like one of those shitty credit cards that get sent to you unintentionally. Fees galore - fees for checking your balance, fees for every cash withdrawal after your first, limit of $1000 per withdrawal. The website for setting it up is also intentionally shitty. There’s apparently a way to transfer the balance to a bank account, but it’s not intuitive or easy. We tried it and we’re not sure if it even went through because the verbiage is vague and bad.
Someone is getting huge kickbacks for putting billions of dollars on these horrible debit cards.
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Originally Posted by OreoCookie
I don't see how geographic separation (as opposed to magnitude of movement of people) is a factor either of these groups share. Ditto for social conformity. I'm not saying these factors don't matter at all, I'm saying they are subordinate factors further down.
Why should I trust your opinion (or anyone else for that matter) of whether these factors are subordinate over minimizing the question by virtue of a well chosen control?
The only rationale I’ve seen so far is the game of evaluating controls can go on forever. Is evaluation of whether a factor is subordinate somehow immune to this same problem?
If they’re equally susceptible, then what’s the rationale for your method? When it comes to my proposal, even if we ignore the part where scientific method has already proven superior to other methods of analysis, the average person is quite simply going to have a more informed opinion about what countries are most similar to the United States versus that of the role geography plays in viral transmission.
If we take a poll with the question “independent of competency of the executive what countries are in all other ways most alike to the United States”, the majority answer may not be right, but my guess is it’s close. Much closer than if we force our poll respondents to wear the hat of junior epidemiologist.
When I offer the option of Germany or France, that’s not only my own poll response, it’s my best guess as to what the majority would pick. I predict South Korea would not be on high on this list. For the same reason if It is asked what is most similar to a oversized pickup rolling some coal, the answer “a Ferrari” is not high on the list.
Lastly, I did address the question of travel density. To repeat, both air and water travel are highly regulated. There is already a framework in place to control these things. The population of South Korea is also far more willing to accept interference in these areas than the population than the United States. Further, any problem South Korea has, the United States has it worse. We also have very densely populated areas. We have coasts which are easily accessible by boat... just two orders of magnitude more of them.
However, I want to make it clear my focus on geography is wholly based on it being challenged. I’d say the cultural differences between the U.S. and South Korea are of more import.
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What I'm interested in is the US states that reopened everything right away vs the cautious states. I was expecting spikes in the case rankings from the wide-open states.
Turns out it's more complex. While some governors have thrown open the gates, businesses and customers are being far more cautious. We'll have to keep waiting on stats updates.
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And, in the case of Florida, you fire the person who puts accurate data on your websites; or Georgia, you "missort" the daily data so charts appear to go down when they are not.
We got a regular check I think, not a bank card... that's messed up. Interestingly enough, our check does not have the famous signature on it. Perhaps since we're not republicans? My parents check did.
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Last edited by andi*pandi; May 24, 2020 at 02:55 PM.
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Originally Posted by reader50
What I'm interested in is the US states that reopened everything right away vs the cautious states. I was expecting spikes in the case rankings from the wide-open states.
Turns out it's more complex. While some governors have thrown open the gates, businesses and customers are being far more cautious. We'll have to keep waiting on stats updates.
In most cases it is difficult to compare states directly. Lower mobility, low population density, lower economic output and slower spread of Covid-19 are strongly correlated. Plus, there is an element of luck, too. It is always easy to justify a posteriori that you did the right thing when you just got very lucky.
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Originally Posted by subego
Why should I trust your opinion (or anyone else for that matter) of whether these factors are subordinate over minimizing the question by virtue of a well chosen control?
I don't know what to reply here: rather than discuss the merits of my points, you just question whether you should “trust” my opinion. I don't think you should trust others's opinions, but IMHO if you want to participate in a discussion in an open forum, you should take them seriously, think about them and engage with them to figure out for yourself whether or not I have a point or not.
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It's too early to expect any statistically relevant spikes to emerge.
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Originally Posted by OreoCookie
I don't know what to reply here: rather than discuss the merits of my points, you just question whether you should “trust” my opinion. I don't think you should trust others's opinions, but IMHO if you want to participate in a discussion in an open forum, you should take them seriously, think about them and engage with them to figure out for yourself whether or not I have a point or not.
From the beginning, my premise has been a comparison between the United States and South Korea is poor methodology.
I have faith in your ability to divine from the above statement whether I think you have a valid point.
What would validate your point are arguments for how a small Asian country who’s been at war for 50 years is the world’s closest analogy to the United States (excepting executive competency). I maintain this position is not only incorrect, but that it is in fact preposterous.
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Originally Posted by subego
What would validate your point are arguments for how a small Asian country who’s been at war for 50 years is the world’s closest analogy to the United States (excepting executive competency).
I don't remember the "closest" part. I thought Oreo's been arguing S. Korea is a valid comparison, with focus on policy choices. Numerous news stories have mentioned the USA and SK got their first confirmed cases on the same day. SK got serious immediately, while we spent six weeks sucking thumb.
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Originally Posted by reader50
I don't remember the "closest" part. I thought Oreo's been arguing S. Korea is a valid comparison, with focus on policy choices. Numerous news stories have mentioned the USA and SK got their first confirmed cases on the same day. SK got serious immediately, while we spent six weeks sucking thumb.
We are comparing the United States to a control.
What makes for a good control is similarly to what we are comparing it to in all facets except the independent variable.
The more unlike the United States the control, the less reliable the conclusion we can draw from the comparison.
If a different comparison provides more reliable results, what would be the purpose of using the less reliable comparison?
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Originally Posted by subego
We are comparing the United States to a control.
...
If a different comparison provides more reliable results, what would be the purpose of using the less reliable comparison?
To have a broad range of data? Using this reasoning, we should compare the US to only the closest analogue. Ignoring all the other countries. Good science studies everything.
I'm fine with comparison to SK. But I also want to see comparison to Italy, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the UK, Japan, France, Spain, Germany, etc.
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Originally Posted by reader50
To have a broad range of data? Using this reasoning, we should compare the US to only the closest analogue. Ignoring all the other countries. Good science studies everything.
I posit good science studies “apples to apples”.
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Looking back on this, there’s a point I need to reiterate.
The author of the article claims our incompetent executive has had a detrimental effect on our country’s containment of the pandemic.
As evidence, they offer the comparison between the United States and South Korea.
This is the part I need to make clear... I’m not saying you can’t compare the United States and South Korea. I’m saying this comparison is bad evidence for the author’s assertion. Good evidence for the author’s assertion would have made an attempt to account for the vast differences between the two countries by picking a better control.
Edit: I’d like to add, if we want to analyze the effects of executive competency on pandemic containment, the most insightful comparison we can make is between South Korea and Japan. These countries have far, far more in common with each other, and we can draw much stronger conclusions about how important a role the executive plays from the comparison.
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Last edited by subego; May 24, 2020 at 05:24 PM.
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Originally Posted by subego
We are comparing the United States to a control.
No, there is no control, this is not a controlled experiment, it is a world-wide pandemic.
Originally Posted by subego
The more unlike the United States the control, the less reliable the conclusion we can draw from the comparison.
If a different comparison provides more reliable results, what would be the purpose of using the less reliable comparison?
The point of comparisons is to learn something, in this case to learn what better policies are and how to best implement them. You better believe that e. g. Germany learnt from South Korea and other countries that have proven to be more successful in dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic even though — in your thinking — those countries are not apples. I made a list of policies and facts that countries which are perceived to have had a successful response to the Covid-19 pandemic have in common — including countries you “allow” the US to be compared to. But you have ignored this list so far.
Like reader said, my focus is on policies first, on what countries did or what we can measure. Things like culture or perhaps geographical peculiarities may help explain why some measure did or did not work. But that’s another, the next step in the analysis. And sure, this is an interesting discussion to have. We could muse about whether because the US is such an individualistic countries, its population can only imagine solutions to problems that people can tacke as individuals, etc. etc. But even here a comparison between different cultures (which you always have to consider when comparing aspects of countries, or even parts within countries) might actually be enlightening rather than “unfair”.
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Originally Posted by reader50
To have a broad range of data? Using this reasoning, we should compare the US to only the closest analogue. Ignoring all the other countries. Good science studies everything.
I'm fine with comparison to SK. But I also want to see comparison to Italy, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the UK, Japan, France, Spain, Germany, etc.
That's right. Especially if we look at the commonalities between countries that have been doing well vs. those that haven't, you can extract commonalities which are independent of certain particularities every country inevitably comes with.
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Originally Posted by subego
I posit good science studies “apples to apples”.
But if you are after a general rule or what you are studying cover more than just apples then science studies apples to everything relevant and also lots of irrelevant things in case they turn out to be relevant.
Studying gravity shows us that it applies to ALL apples, but a wider study shows it also applies to pears, mangoes and even house bricks.
Surely pandemic studies garner valid data from all countries suffering the same pandemic and then filters can be applied to counter speck differences that may or may not be relevant?
Apples be Apples but People also all be People.
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Its a small enough data set if you are happy comparing all the countries. And this is a system that is highly statistical in the nature of how it works.
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Originally Posted by OreoCookie
The point of comparisons is to learn something...
Originally Posted by Doc HM
But if you are after a general rule...
I agree with both these claims. This is where things are getting confused.
I take no issue with comparisons made to seek general rules, or to learn which policies are better and how to best implement them.
The article in question is neither of those things. The article is an assessment of Trump’s performance.
If there are gross dissimilarities between what we are comparing, it becomes more ambiguous whether the results are due to what we’re testing for, which in this case is the effect of executive competence, or the gross dissimilarity.
This is why the analytical best practice in this case would be an attempt to isolate the variable in question (executive competence).
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Last edited by subego; May 25, 2020 at 06:17 AM.
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Then the salient questions are about preparedness (He axed Obamas pandemic team), and whether the apparent best policies were followed compared to the amount of advanced notice and the scientific advice available. He withdrew from the WHO, refused resources to states that didn't suck up to him, failed to quickly implement widespread testing and tracing, and delayed lockdown for economic and other political reasons. Its hard to quantify his competence meaningfully but its painfully obvious that his performance has predictably been awful.
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I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
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Honestly, I can’t really assess his performance because I haven’t been paying attention to it. I hear about the stupid shit he says, but I don’t consider that a complete picture.
However, I think it’s relatively easy to quantify his performance. Compare us with Germany. As I said, if we want a general assessment of how important the executive is in this context, compare Japan to South Korea.
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Originally Posted by subego
Honestly, I can’t really assess his performance because I haven’t been paying attention to it.
Why do you have such strong opinions when you admit you “haven't been paying attention”?
Originally Posted by subego
I hear about the stupid shit he says, but I don’t consider that a complete picture.
One of the greatest pieces of wisdom in Randy Pausch's last lecture was that we should not pay attention to what people say, but what people do.
Originally Posted by subego
However, I think it’s relatively easy to quantify his performance. Compare us with Germany. As I said, if we want a general assessment of how important the executive is in this context, compare Japan to South Korea.
If you don't know what the Trump Administration did, shouldn't you be, hmm, a bit more humble and cautious, and less opinionated when it comes to comparisons with other countries? Because from where I am sitting, it sure looks like you base your arguments on preconceived notions about other countries and cultures, but you don't seem to have much first-hand experience with them. (I could be wrong about this, but this is my impression anyway.)
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Originally Posted by OreoCookie
If you don't know what the Trump Administration did, shouldn't you be, hmm, a bit more humble and cautious, and less opinionated when it comes to comparisons with other countries?
You're missing his point entirely. This feels like the roundabout discussion all over again.
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Trump actively demolished the National Security Council’s Global Health Security and Biodefense unit in 2018. Probably for political reasons, since this happened after Bolton was appointed to the NSC.
Now there’s no way to know if the unit would have been able to do anything to reduce the harm Trump’s “management” of the situation caused, but without that unit, it would have been challenging for any leadership to do much.
So whatever political bent anyone has, actively disbanding a team designed to handle pandemics was a bad move. I personally wear a seat belt every time I’m in a car. I don’t do it because I think I’m a bad driver, or even that I (probably rightly ![Wink](http://forums.macnn.com/images/smilies/oldschool/wink.gif) ) think almost everybody else is a bad driver. I do it because you never know when you’ll need that protection. Disbanding the pandemic unit is essentially removing everybody’s seat belts “because we only really need them very rarely.”
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I think we all know he dismantled it because it had Obama's name on it.
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Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep
I think we all know he dismantled it because it had Obama's name on it.
That's pretty much been his raison d'être since day-1. Eliminate all traces of the brown man.
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Chicago, Bang! Bang!
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Originally Posted by OreoCookie
Why do you have such strong opinions when you admit you “haven't been paying attention”?
If you have to ask this question, then you don’t understand what I’ve been saying. What I have strong opinions about, and what I haven’t been paying attention to are entirely different things.
Originally Posted by OreoCookie
Because from where I am sitting, it sure looks like you base your arguments on preconceived notions about other countries and cultures, but you don't seem to have much first-hand experience with them.
Even though I’m sure I have my share of noxious opinions and behaviors, you’re the only person on this forum who resorts to comments like this towards me, and it’s the endgame of almost every discussion we have. My only comment is bridging a communication gap demands we throw each other ropes, not rocks.
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Moderator ![](http://forums.macnn.com/_gb_images/_img_ranks/star_5_moderator.png)
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Nobletucky
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Chicago, Bang! Bang!
Status:
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From the “silver lining” bureau, our state may finally legalize alcohol in to-go cups.
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Administrator ![](http://forums.macnn.com/_gb_images/_img_ranks/star_5_admin.png)
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: San Antonio TX USA
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Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep
I think we all know he dismantled it because it had Obama's name on it.
Of course that's the root of it, but it didn't come up until Bolton was on the NSC. So while da prez doesn't want to have any Obama remnants around him, it took Bolton to point it out. So there's that. ![Hmm...](http://forums.macnn.com/images/smilies/hmmm.gif)
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Glenn -----OTR/L, MOT, Tx
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Moderator ![](http://forums.macnn.com/_gb_images/_img_ranks/star_5_moderator.png)
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Nobletucky
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Posting Junkie
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: UK
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Originally Posted by ghporter
Of course that's the root of it, but it didn't come up until Bolton was on the NSC. So while da prez doesn't want to have any Obama remnants around him, it took Bolton to point it out. So there's that.
I imagine there's a laundry list of things Trump isn't aware of that he'd destroy if he were.
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I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
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Professional Poster
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Southern California
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Originally Posted by Thorzdad
Good on Roberts.
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Moderator ![](stars/star_5_hbar_blue.png)
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hilbert space
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I have to say, the language of the dissent is a bit worrying. It really sounds like even some of the SC Justices have begun stoking the fears and fan the flames. Houses of worship have been the epicenter of clusters in many, many countries, including South Korea and Germany. And it isn't that this is a measure targeting religious people when secular gatherings (from rock concerts to school) have been restricted, too.
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I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
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Administrator ![](http://forums.macnn.com/_gb_images/_img_ranks/star_5_admin.png)
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: California
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Agreed. We're in a global crisis, and churches were not singled out. It should not have been a 5-4 vote. Per the 1st Amendment:
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press, or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
Relevant parts shown. People can still assemble, even in large groups (outside) with spacing. I don't see a specific indoor right listed.
States have long been able to set occupancy limits on locations based on assorted factors. Like fire evacuation speed, structural strength, number of life boats, safety from being crushed, etc. Modifying those limits to include disease concerns should be kosher, especially when it's applied to other facilities equally.
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Moderator ![](http://forums.macnn.com/_gb_images/_img_ranks/star_5_moderator.png)
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Nobletucky
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Posting Junkie
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: UK
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Just like our government. Completely incompetent.
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I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
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Posting Junkie
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: UK
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An example from this side of the pond:
Apple - We will make a free track and trace system.
Google - We will help, then it will work across 99 percent of phones. Should be ready by May.
UK govt - No, We'll make our own version.
Apple and Google - you'd need our help.
Uk govt. - No we dont, Dom's mate says he can do it.
Apple and Google - off you go then.
Dom's mate - can I have your propriety code.
Apple and Google - hahahaha. No.
Dom's mate - why not?
Apple and Google - Because your system breaches international privacy laws by ripping peoples contact data and storing it on your servers so you can use or sell it later.
Public - It does? **** that!
Hancock - our world beating system is up and running, at a cost of only £120,000,000
NHS - no its not.
Hancock - we have hit a snag.
Public - Whats that?
Hancock - It doesn't work on iPhones. Or Android. And nobody wants to download it.
Whole world - really...?
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I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
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Moderator ![](stars/star_5_hbar_blue.png)
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hilbert space
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Originally Posted by reader50
Agreed. We're in a global crisis, and churches were not singled out. It should not have been a 5-4 vote. Per the 1st Amendment:
Relevant parts shown. People can still assemble, even in large groups (outside) with spacing. I don't see a specific indoor right listed.
Outdoor events seem to be much safer than indoor events, the lack of ventilation makes the latter much riskier. Moreover, some activities in churches go against safety recommendations (like sharing communion or singing).
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I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
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Moderator ![](http://forums.macnn.com/_gb_images/_img_ranks/star_5_moderator.png)
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: inside 128, north of 90
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Originally Posted by Thorzdad
that's ****ing ridiculous.
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: 888500128, C3, 2nd soft.
Status:
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Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep
An example from this side of the pond:
Apple - We will make a free track and trace system.
Google - We will help, then it will work across 99 percent of phones. Should be ready by May.
UK govt - No, We'll make our own version.
Apple and Google - you'd need our help.
Uk govt. - No we dont, Dom's mate says he can do it.
Apple and Google - off you go then.
Dom's mate - can I have your propriety code.
Apple and Google - hahahaha. No.
Dom's mate - why not?
Apple and Google - Because your system breaches international privacy laws by ripping peoples contact data and storing it on your servers so you can use or sell it later.
Public - It does? **** that!
Hancock - our world beating system is up and running, at a cost of only £120,000,000
NHS - no its not.
Hancock - we have hit a snag.
Public - Whats that?
Hancock - It doesn't work on iPhones. Or Android. And nobody wants to download it.
Whole world - really...?
Germany just got the “official” COVID tracing app this last Tuesday, after a delay attributed in part to completely tearing down the initial concept and switching to a decentralised, fully anonymised structure proposed by the Chaos Computer Club and other privacy advocates.
They even posted the entire source code on github a few weeks ago for public scrutiny.
That is *not* how such endeavours are usually undertaken here.
I saw an interview with a visibly shaken CCC guy saying that, from their point of view, there were absolutely no relevant issues that spoke against installing and using this state-developed app. “This is very difficult for me to say.”
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Iowa, how long can this be? Does it really ruin the left column spacing?
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Is there some kind of checksum you can look at before downloading that tells you the compiled app and source code are the same?
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: 888500128, C3, 2nd soft.
Status:
Offline
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Honestly, I have no idea.
However, the CCC is notoriously anti-government, anti-regulation, anti-tracking, and pro-privacy. They're basically the biggest collection of (mostly) white-hat hackers and privacy advocates around.
If they say it's cool, it's cool. I assume their competence in assessing these matters. :-)
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Professional Poster
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Southern California
Status:
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Apple is re-closing stores.
I wonder if we see other companies follow suit.
I wonder if we see any local or state governments follow suit?
I think a lot of places rushed to reopen because they were running out of money. If that’s true there’s a chance they will choose to ride this out.
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